Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – August 2020

Key Events: 

·         Nifty (+7.5%) made new highs (breaching 200DMA & 11k for the first time since March fall) in July but more than half of its gains were contributed by just two stocks.

·         After a sharp recovery (>+50%) from April lows, activity levels peaked in early-July and were still >15% below pre-Covid levels.

·         The MPC, unanimously, kept the repo rate unchanged at 4% but retained the ‘accommodative’ stance.

·         Headline CPI moderated to 6.1% for June after peaking at 7.2% in April. Core Inflation at 5.1% was still elevated in June suggesting that despite the subdued demand, the supply disruption led CPI to spike

·         After almost 18 years, India reported a trade surplus of $0.8bn in June driven by broad-based export rebound and still weak import demand. Oil imports were suppressed by low oil, but non-oil trade improved sharply

·         Centre’s fiscal deficit during 1Q of this fiscal stood at ~83% of Budget Estimate. Reports suggested that actual fiscal deficit for FY21 could be as high as 7.6%, almost 2x budget

Please click here for Monthly Equity & Debt Outlook Presentation – July 2020

·       Nifty (up +7.5%) finally decoupled from the US markets (S&P up only +1.8%) and outperformed during June.

·       Despite the headwinds, Indian markets continued to rise due to high foreign inflows (+$2.5bn, highest monthly inflows in 2020) and marginal domestic institutional buying (+$0.3bn). In sectorial trends, all sectors were up v/s May with Realty and Banks at the top.

·       After the border clash with China led to 20 Indian casualties, the Indian forces deployed along the 3500-km border were given “full freedom” to counter any aggressive Chinese behavior . Later both countries, however, agreed on a “step-wise mutual disengagement” from areas of friction in Ladakh averting further escalation. 

·       IMF projected a deeper 4.5% contraction (vs -1.9% in April) for India in FY21 citing a longer lockdown period and slower than anticipated recovery. FY22 growth forecasted at +6% vs +7.4% earlier.

·       Moody’s downgraded India’s rating to Baa3, last level of investment grade rating, while keeping outlook as negative. whereas Fitch reaffirmed BBB- rating but changed the outlook to negative. S&P retained BBB- rating with a stable outlook. 

·       The gross GST revenue collected in the month of June, 2020 is Rs 90,917 crore.

·       The India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 47.2 in June, compared with 30.8 in May.

·       May merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a decade low $3.2bn on weak crude and faster recovery in exports vs imports.

·       RBI’s FX reserves hit a record $500bn on portfolio inflows and lower trade deficit.

• India Inc over the last 3 years has seen multiple shocks – from demonetisation to key reforms like GST, RERA etc. to credit freeze in aftermath of wholesale NBFC unable to get access to credit to current lockdown amidst the global supply and demand shock unleashed by Coronavirus. In the long journey of corporate India, these events almost seems like a big RESET button. A call to significantly change business practices, realign key business priorities in a changing landscape and massive consolidation across sectors.

• ·       Covid19 – while initial impact was localised to Chinese economy and therefore the supply shock given large export from China, the spread of virus globally now risks creating a demand shock as well. While global coordination of policy makers and containment of virus and improvement in drugs to counter will reduce the longer term impacts of this shock, near-term demand and supply chains remain frozen amidst a significant drop in economic activity. We are slowly emerging from lockdown to phases of ‘unlocking’ the economy.

• ·       While Indian government & RBI have announced few measures, we expect more measures to be announced given the unprecedented nature of events led by Covid 19. Amidst this uncertainty, Indian equities have seen large up and down moves in recent months.

• ·       While near term uncertainty induces volatility in asset prices, in the long run, wealth creation in equities is a function as how businesses can profitably grow over their cost of capital sustainably. Given the long-range of reforms introduced as well as likely relief measures by government & RBI, we believe longer-term prospects of Indian equities is quite encouraging and we would advise investors to benefit from such induced volatility.

• ·       Time in the market is more important than timing the market - recently, markets volatility has moved up and investors can benefit from this volatility by focusing on disciplined investing and asset allocation.